Enigmatic Egypt

I think my title has a better ring than the one for this Rami Khouri article about the odd mix of progress on the economic level despite re-entrenched political authoritarianism.

Efforts to paint this country in a single shade of color are common, but not very useful. Egypt is neither structurally diabolic, nor genetically enlightened. I keep coming back to Egypt for visits and make it a point to speak to both critics and members of the ruling establishment, along with independent analysts and citizens, because Egypt continues to be so potentially important for the future of the entire Arab region. It is a barometer that measures the Arab political condition, but also a rudder that defines the direction in which other countries move.

At the regional level Egypt has been politically immobilized for the past quarter century, following its peace treaty with Israel and close reliance on the United States, but it has not been made irrelevant. Politically and economically, the domestic scene has been stirring again in recent years, and the imminent transition to a new president in the coming years might signal an opportunity for change. The problem is that this confounding land continues to send mixed signals on how it wants to change.

[..]

I do not know the political implications of, or the answer to, why a police- and army-dominated modern Arab security state can achieve brisk economic reforms, high growth rates and massive job expansion, in a manner that other Arab countries can only envy, without attempting any serious political reform. But I suspect that this is the right question to ask, as we continue to grapple with the enigma of an entire region of nearly 300 million Arabs who have not been able to achieve or sustain a single breakthrough to credible democracy.

Yes,  it is a good question to ask. However, my feeling is that the assessment of the (lack of) need for political reform is a little hasty. I think the wave of labor and, most recently, public service strikes and protests is an indication that there is undoubtedly a need. Perhaps it’s more a matter of how long this dichotomy can persist and what will come of it.